Bills Look to Stay Hot in Miami

Football Betting Lines

11/09/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OK...who saw this coming?

When the Buffalo Bills dropped a season-opener to Denver at the final whistle, then stumbled through successive blowout losses while incurring myriad injuries against Pittsburgh and New England over the following two weeks, can anyone honestly say they still forecasted a .500 season after 16 games?

Let alone eight games?

The Bills turned that latter trick against Cincinnati last Sunday, defeating the bumbling Bengals, 33-21, to win their third straight game and fourth of five, evening their record at a respectable 4-4 at the 2007 schedule's midway point.

And now, gasp...the word "playoffs" is seeping into the optimistic consciousness of Orchard Park.

Buffalo has a moderately do-able dance card the rest of the way, including a pair of dates with this week's partner -- the winless Miami Dolphins -- and eminently winnable matchups with three 5-3 teams in Jacksonville, Washington and Cleveland.

As for the other two games - against 8-0 New England and the 6-2 New York Giants - well, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

"It feels great," said Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo's rookie running back, who went for 153 yards on 29 carries and a touchdown, while also throwing an 8-yard TD pass to Robert Royal. "But the win feels better. I give big ups to my offensive linemen, carrying me the way (they did) and I want to congratulate myself."

Lynch has racked up 690 yards (third-best in the AFC) on 177 carries and scored five times for Buffalo, which also got 295 yards passing on 24-of-34 attempts from starter-turned-backup-turned-starter J.P. Losman, who was back under center in place of injured backup-turned-starter Trent Edwards.

Losman is expected to start again this week while Edwards, who was 3-1 in four starts, is questionable with a balky right wrist.

And the Dolphins? Well, they didn't lose last week.

Miami took a much-needed week off following a trip to London for a sloppy 13-10 loss to the Giants at Wembley Stadium that got it halfway to the ignominy of an 0-16 season. Quarterback Cleo Lemon will start again after taking over for injured Trent Green in an Oct. 7 loss to Houston.

"We challenged them (in London) to play the best game they've played all year, give us the greatest effort they've given us all year and we know that these guys are playing as hard as they can play," Miami coach Cam Cameron said.

"We're going to keep our eyes up, our head high. This group's got a lot of football left this season. There's eight games staring at us."

SERIES HISTORY

Miami leads the all-time regular season series with Buffalo, 49-32-1, but was swept in last year's home-and-home. The Bills were 16-6 winners when the teams met in South Florida in Week 2, and blanked Miami by a 21-0 count at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15. Buffalo has now won five of the last six in the series, with the Dolphins' only win during that stretch coming at home by a 24-23 count in Week 13 of 2005.

Though the Dolphins lead the regular season series, the Bills hold a 3-1 edge in postseason games. Buffalo defeated Miami in a 1990 AFC Divisional Playoff, the 1992 AFC Championship, and a 1995 AFC First-Round Playoff, while the Dolphins were winners in a 1998 AFC First-Round Playoff.

Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 2-1 in his head coaching career against the Dolphins, including a 27-9 loss for his Bears in Miami during the 2002 season. The Dolphins' Cameron will be meeting both Smith and Chicago for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

Losman employs a more down-the-field style than Edwards, which provides both increased risk and increased reward. Wideout Lee Evans benefited from the change last week, posting a season-best 165 receiving yards, including an 8- yard TD catch. He has 31 catches for 514 yards on the season, including two scores and a 16.6-yard average per catch. Losman, overall, has connected on 57-of-86 passes for the season, good for 663 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He's 2-1 in three lifetime starts against the Dolphins and has thrown for seven TDs against them, his most against any opponent. Overall, Buffalo averages just 275.1 yards per game and enters with a turnover ratio of plus-7.

Injuries and frustration have been the theme of Miami 2007, including the prospect of another week without veteran linebacker Zach Thomas due to a concussion, which was followed by a car accident and has yielded migraine headaches. He's listed as questionable for the weekend. Among the healthy, defensive end Jason Taylor, who leads the team with four sacks, has 16 in his career against the Bills, his most against any opponent. Several players are tied for the Dolphins lead with one interception, and the team as a unit has a miserable minus-8 turnover ratio with an average yards-allowed-per-week total of 349.3.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

Lemon will get another chance to show what he can do, though what he's shown so far hasn't impressed too many. Expect the calls for recent draft choice John Beck to get louder if the losing streak continues. For what it's worth, Lemon is 80-of-137 overall through the air, including 65-of-110 in his three post-Green starting assignments. He's thrown for 790 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions while posting a 79.0 passer rating. In terms of targets, his pickings grew slimmer when Chris Chambers was traded to San Diego, leaving Marty Booker (26 catches, 305 yards) as the most prodigious holdover. Elsewhere, rookie Ted Ginn Jr. caught his first career TD pass against the Giants in London. On the ground, the Dolphins are without Ronnie Brown for the season with a knee injury, though youngster Jesse Chatman ran hard while gaining 79 yards on 16 carries against New York. Miami is averaging 322.1 yards per game through eight games.

The Bills have been gashed for 371.0 yards per game, but have capitalized on opponents' mistakes in terms of turnovers. They've allowed just 16 points per game during their three-game win streak - which can grow to four for the first time since December 2004 - after allowing 23.4 per week through the first five games (1-4). They allowed just 28 yards on the ground against the Bengals last week, their best effort since surrendering just 23 to the Giants in November 2003. Cornerback Kiwaukee Thomas notched the first interception of his eight- year pro career against Cincinnati, putting him one off the team lead. Also, end Aaron Schobel is the most prolific of the front-liners with 2.5 sacks.

FANTASY FOCUS

Losman's re-emergence brings Evans into play as a big-numbers receiver, and makes Lynch a potentially more potent weapon in the backfield. Offensively for the Dolphins, there's not much to look at now that Brown is gone. Buffalo is a decent pick on defense with its propensity for turnovers, though yardage totals should make potential owners wary. Miami has a tradition of fine defense over the last several years, but hasn't been able to continue it this season, due to both injuries and simple lack of productivity.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

If the Bills are really what their fans say they are - a playoff contender - they win this game, no ifs, ands or buts. If they're not, then they could be ripe for an upset that gets the Dolphins off their 0-for-2007 skid. The guess here is that it's more of the former than the latter. It may not be a breeze, but Losman, Lynch and friends should nonetheless get it done, leaving Miami's next-most-likely first-win victim (the New York Jets) to try and dodge the bullet on Dec. 2.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bills 20, Dolphins 14